450 Quotes by Daniel Kahneman

Even statisticians were not good intuitive statisticians.

System 1 is radically insensitive to both the quality and the quantity of the information that gives rise to impressions and intuitions.

In terms of noise, psychiatry is an extreme case.

As Nassim Taleb pointed out in The Black Swan, our tendency to construct and believe coherent narratives of the past makes it difficult for us to accept the limits of our forecasting ability. Everything makes sense in hindsight, a fact that financial pundits exploit every evening as they offer convincing accounts of the day’s events.

The observed regression to the mean cannot be more interesting or more explainable than the imperfect correlation.

Facts that challenge basic assumptions-and thereby threaten people’s livelihood and self-esteem-are simply not absorbed. The mind does not digest them.

My advice to students when I taught negotiations was that if you think the other side has made an outrageous proposal, you should not come back with an equally outrageous counteroffer, creating a gap that will be difficult to bridge in further negotiations. Instead you should make a scene, storm out or threaten to do so, and make it clear – to yourself as well as to the other side – that you will not continue the negotiation with that number on the table.

When the driver of a car is overtaking a truck on a narrow road, for example, adult passengers quite sensibly stop talking.

Because it is much easier, as well as far more enjoyable, to identify and label the mistakes of others than to recognize our own. Questioning what we believe and want is difficult at the.