32 Quotes by David Beard
- Author David Beard
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We'll start to see shifts in there, and I think high-end consumer stocks are going to see a lot fewer sales,
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We own Edison International -- it is our largest position. It's a California utility. It could earn $2 a share next year, ... And it's probably worth between $22 and $24 (per share). They have an unregulated subsidiary, which could be worth another $2 to $4 (per share).
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We own a hospital stock. We own a couple of them, but our favorite is UHS. They're performing well. Admissions are up. Pricing is up and that stock's probably worth 30 percent higher,
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You have to take the actual numbers and the guidance and combine the two. I tend to think if the high p/e (price-to-earnings ratio) stocks have a weak quarter, and even if they have ok guidance, they're going to get killed. But if there are cheap tech stocks that have a weak quarter and so-so guidance, they're probably the ones to buy first.
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We think pricing is going to be up in mid-single digits as early as June. People are not really looking at this at all. And historically, if you look at a price to sales multiple, this stock can trade as high as $40-to-$50 (per share),
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Earnings warnings are backward looking; economic data are forward looking. People want to look forward.
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Even for a professional, it's difficult to get your hands around the information. It's difficult for everyone.
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And then Lamar -- it's a billboard company. It's all in small markets. Their business has been turning and coming back and it's trading at 15 times free cash flow, ... We think it's worth $20 (per share) and can get taken up between $60 and $70 a share ... You're starting to see the rebound in advertising. The billboard business, for them, continues to be pretty steady and it's rebounding. So, it's more specific for Lamar but the industry is performing better.
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As long as the numbers are within expectations, it's going to be a win-win situation. If the economy is a little bit weaker than we think, that's good because that means the Fed will keep cutting. If the economic data is a little bit better than we think, that's good too because that means companies won't miss numbers.
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