8 Quotes by David Spiegelhalter

this book is part of what could be called a new wave in statistics teaching, in which formal probability theory as a basis for statistical inference does not come in till much later

[Adolphe Quetelet] developed the idea of 'social physics', since the regularity of societal statistics seemed to reflect an almost mechanistic underlying process. Just as the random molecules of a gas come together to make predictable physical properties, so the unpredictable workings of millions of individual lives come together to produce, for example, national suicide rates that barely change from year to year.

Even in an era of open data, data science and data journalism, we still need basic statistical principles in order not to be misled by apparent patterns in the numbers.

Signals always come with noise: It is trying to separate out the two that makes the subject interesting.

More data means that we need to be even more aware of what the evidence is actually worth.

Alberto Cairo has identified four common features of a good data visualization: It contains reliable information. The design has been chosen so that relevant patterns become noticeable. It is presented in an attractive manner, but appearance should not get in the way of honesty, clarity and depth. When appropriate, it is organized in a way that enables some exploration.

These examples show that statistics are always to some extent constructed on the basis of judgements, and it would be an obvious delusion to think the full complexity of personal experience can be unambiguously coded and put into a spreadsheet or other software.

Far from freeing us from the need for statistical skills, bigger data and the rise in the number and complexity of scientific studies makes it even more difficult to draw appropriate conclusions.