22 Quotes by Harvinder Kalirai

There are a few signs of cracks beneath the surface in the U.S. economy, starting with the weak durable goods and confidence figures last week, and now with the rise in oil.

With oil prices back near record levels, one can bet that the Brazilians are increasing ethanol production. This means less refined sugar and higher prices.

We don't think it'll be enough to halt a move at this month's FOMC meeting. We still look for the Fed go 25 basis points.

We don't think it'll be enough to halt a move at this month's FOMC meeting, ... We still look for the Fed go 25 basis points.

At these levels, the Australian dollar is looking attractive. A decline in U.S. interest-rate expectations is beneficial for Australia.

The trend is still toward wider deficits, so this is a concern for the U.S. dollar. I continue to forecast it lower.

The Australian currency may rise to US80c over the next month.

If you look back to 1994 when the Fed was hiking rates continuously, after every rate hike the Fed adopted a neutral bias. However, the tightening cycle continued until early '95, for a total of 300 basis points (3 percent). We are not looking for that type of tightening cycle this time, but nevertheless it does suggest that the neutral bias does not preclude further rate hikes down the road.

If the market begins to expect a more imminent end to the Fed's tightening cycle that would certainly remove the interest rate support for the dollar,