270 Quotes by Ian Shepherdson

If these declines were part of the normal economic cycle we would now call for a recession in the U.S., but they aren't. The index is responding to a shock, and we expect it quickly to rebound.

If real spending rises at this pace in February and March, consumer spending will rise just 2.3 percent for the quarter, the softest since Q2 1997,

Things will likely get worse before they get better.

If this continues, it can do real damage to core inflation, making it all the more important that the Fed succeeds in slowing the economy to ease inflation pressure.

These are spectacular numbers and confirm that the labor market is not at the moment the source of anything that could be plausibly described as inflationary pressure.

In the short-term, these data will reinforce the impression that the housing market is proving resilient in the face of higher mortgage rates, ... it will not last, because the current trend in home sales is not high enough to support this rate of house building in the medium-term.

If this is sustained we can be more hopeful the trade deficit will not rise further,

The rise in oil prices was always likely to hit these numbers with a vengeance, and the petroleum deficit duly rose by $1.4 billion.

Bear in mind this survey is always more volatile than the ISM, and there may be an outsized July 4 long weekend effect, too. But these are bad numbers.