270 Quotes by Ian Shepherdson

If claims remain anywhere near this week's level, they will send a very strong signal that the labor market is tightening.

Over the next few months we expect starts to strengthen as reconstruction begins on the Gulf Coast - the rise in permits may be an early sign - but elsewhere starts still need to lag sales. Demand is still huge but there are too many new homes for sale.

For now, claims signal strong payrolls and a lower unemployment rate.

Strength is broad-based, confirming that what consumers do can be very different to their responses to confidence surveys.

Our forecast was undone by two factors. The impact of the post-Katrina spike in oil prices is lingering; it will eventually fade. Second, trade in goods ex-oil and aircraft -- core -- deteriorated again.

November will be better, but the past year's flat trend in the core deficit seems to be breaking.

The March Beige Book paints a clear picture of an economy straining at the seams. Significantly, compared to recent Beige Books, there was more detail, and a more worrying tone, to the comments on the labor market.

Overall, this is not too bad a report, but clearly there's some pressure in some sectors.

Despite undershooting the consensus, these numbers do not look too bad to us. Confidence might well dip further -- job fears hit a 28-month high this month -- but the big plunge looks to be over.