270 Quotes by Ian Shepherdson

The key question now is how quickly it recovers,

Overall, this is a very robust report. There was a big upward revision to November orders excluding transportation, to a gain of 0.6% from down 0.6%.

The key point is that the deficit is being easily financed.

Despite undershooting the consensus, these numbers do not look too bad to us, ... Confidence might well dip further -- job fears hit a 28-month high this month -- but the big plunge looks to be over.

As far as we can tell, just about everyone now expects another 25-basis-point hike on May 16, which rather begs the question why the Fed did not act more boldly today and raise rates by 50 basis points. By the time of the May meeting, a bigger move might be forced upon the FOMC.

The key number in this report, in our view, is the rise in the supply of homes for sale. There are now 14.4 percent more homes for sale than a year ago, while actual sales are up just 3.3 percent. With mortgage demand slipping a bit and supply rising, price gains cannot continue at their current pace.

Overall, the survey is still very strong, but we hoped for a bit better. A further decline next month would be a bit disconcerting, but there is no reason to expect that.

The underlying trends are still adverse, however, and the deficit will rebound next month.

As far as we can tell, confidence now seems to have run a bit ahead of the improvement in the stock market, and the failure of the Nasdaq and Dow to make further progress in recent weeks makes it doubtful that confidence will continue to rise at the May pace. The sharp rise in unemployment is likely to become a negative factor, too.