270 Quotes by Ian Shepherdson
- Author Ian Shepherdson
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The bottom line is that a one-month decline in this measure does not reverse the clear, firm upward trend.
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This is a low enough number to be interesting, but not so low that it clearly marks a favorable shift in the trend,
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The bottom line here is that the month-to-month volatility in the durable orders data is such that the true information content in a single report is very small -- there's just too much noise.
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- Author Ian Shepherdson
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Our view is that home sales will slide through the summer, dragging housing starts down into the fall. But this is still no more than a forecast; mortgage applications are still very strong.
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The housing market is clearly on a roll again, despite the -- probably temporary -- dip in confidence.
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The bottom line here is that industry is doing well.
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Output will not immediately accelerate to the pace suggested by the orders numbers ... because companies are still aggressively running down inventory.
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Our measure of core sales, which excludes autos, gas and food, rose a pitiful 0.1 percent, the worst performance since April and impossible to square with Mr. Greenspan's assertion last week that the economy is regaining traction,
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- Author Ian Shepherdson
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The headline was pulled down by slightly bigger declines in gasoline, natural gas and fuel oil prices than we expected. Core PPI is now up just 1.7% year over year, down from May's 2.8% peak. It will slow further in the wake of the slowing in raw-materials prices, but the Fed cares much more about the labor market than PPI.
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