270 Quotes by Ian Shepherdson

they strongly suggest that the trend in employment growth is slowing hard. A big drop in May payrolls may be in the cards.

We had hoped the flow of people filing for extended benefits would slow this week, pushing claims back towards their underlying trend -- about 350,000, but it didn't happen,

There was no comment on future Fed policy, but ... with no inflation risk, Mr. Greenspan can wait until recovery is secure. In the meantime, rates are on hold.

With the fastest productivity growth and biggest drop in unit labor costs in seven years, the numbers are certainly worth shouting about, but as yet we are far from convinced that much of the improvement is structural. Mr. Greenspan is of the same view, which is why rates are going up no matter what happens to productivity growth.

The report suggests that industrial orders are trending higher as manufacturing recovers from the Asia crisis, ... There are no real signs of a slowdown.

The pattern in claims in recent months is strikingly similar to 1990 -- a long slow climb and then a sudden acceleration as layoffs accelerated,

The renewed strength in home sales reflects lower mortgage rates; we expect rates to dip to a 14-month low this week. The housing rebound will ensure construction sector strength in the first quarter of 2001. No recession here.

We are not forecasting a recession, but there is some truth to the notion that negative news can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. If companies expect demand to slacken, they scale back production. And if consumers expect doom and gloom, they scale back spending. That's just the way it works.

There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence.