270 Quotes by Ian Shepherdson

At 296,000, claims have slipped back to a five-week low, ... This is simply too low a level to be consistent with a major change in the labor market.

The Fed will deal with (the housing-jobs mix) by hiking in January and March and hoping that the housing softening will be sufficient to get them off the hook by May, though I think that's a close call.

Only a few years ago, auto sales numbers, like those seen recently, would have automatically lead to expectations of higher prices, ... Now, increasing transparency in car prices, substantially due to the Internet, together with the automakers' ability to hold down unit labor costs, means that stronger sales do not necessarily lead to higher prices.

My guess is that is that at the moment these numbers seem to be supporting the slow down story, ... But the market is pretty much ignoring it and moving on.

At this level the index is consistent with spending growth of about 3.5 percent, in line with recent economic data. But watch out for a dip next month in the wake of the renewed spike in gas prices. Overall, though, quite robust.

The Fed's minutes do not change the near-term outlook for policy despite the strong market reaction. Clearly there is some debate as to how much further tightening will be necessary, as the minutes say the number of hikes will likely 'not be large,' but 'large' is undefined. This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.

My guess is it won't be very exciting because he already told us three weeks ago what he thinks. He's certainly not going to say anything that suggests the Fed might be thinking about not cutting rates as soon as the market thinks but I don't think he'll want to give the impression that they're going to slash rates even more aggressively.

The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market. So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.

Core sales slowed hugely at the end of the year, almost certainly as a result of the cash flow hit caused by the post-Katrina leap in energy prices. This is now over, and sales should rebound strongly in the first quarter.