38 Quotes by Joe Osha
- Author Joe Osha
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We continue to believe Intel will apply competitive pressure to AMD in the desktop and mobile markets in an effort to blunt further shares gains, even if the result is negative for Intel's own profitability in 2006.
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Valuation for the stock appears significantly high for a company with a sustainable earnings growth rate of 10 percent to 15 percent. We have difficulty imagining any second-half recovery that could raise earnings, and investor expectations, to a level sufficient to keep the stock moving up.
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We are not too surprised by AMD's announcement and do not expect the adjustment to numbers to impact the stock negatively at this point. Given the fact that AMD's product lineup at the low end of the market is more competitive than Intel's, we expect to see market share gains in the first part of next year.
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The rate of decline for both the flash memory and communications business in the second quarter could be more dramatic than the overall top line, leaving it to the microprocessor business to pick up the slack.
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We'd love to tell investors that we anticipated Intel's problems, but we did not.
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What we see happening is a bottoming to the rate of change in the semiconductor business, which has been negative and less capacity being added by the fourth quarter, which is also good. So, although companies themselves are still very conservative we think that the worst is past in terms of the downturn here.
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We're not raising our estimates for the March quarter, but the strength at Motorola points to the possibility of upside.
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Without the consumer Vista push for the 2006 holidays selling season, we think that discrete graphics processing unit sales could suffer slightly.
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While we believe that our December 2000 quarter estimates are intact, we believe that there is a high probability that the inventory build corrects sometime over the next two quarters.
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