58 Quotes by Kyle Cooper
- Author Kyle Cooper
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Distillate inventories were up slightly but are not rising at a normal pace, so that is a little bit concerning,
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Crude hasn't been responding to fundamentals all year. I think crude has been $8 to $10 overvalued for some time and has been responding to the fear of what could happen rather than the reality of what is happening.
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There's plenty of supply. Crude oil supplies are above 320 million barrels, which is ample to meet demand from refiners.
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The track has been moving to the east, away from the really big refineries in the Houston area. The storm is still serious.
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Temperatures need to fall to alleviate what will be very large inventories by the end of January based on current forecasts.
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Quite simply, the strong Pacific flow is continuing to inhibit any major intrusions of Arctic air into the lower 48. The winter is rapidly coming to an end for all practical purposes.
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Prices are much higher on fear of possible further supply disruptions. Continued concern about the Iranian situation and new threats in Nigeria and primary drivers. There were no new reported attacks in Nigeria, just more threats.
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Offshore production is coming back very slowly. Problems with power have left a number of refineries shut since Rita. This reinforces the very bullish mentality of the market.
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A larger-than-expected decline in crude oil may spook the market. There is a strong historical trend for inventories to fall at the end of the year, although it hasn't happened yet. Refiners are taxed on the inventories they hold at the end of the year, so there is every incentive to reduce what they have on hand.
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