126 Quotes by Lara Rhame
- Author Lara Rhame
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The markets have probably been too quick to connect the dots from the current slew of good data straight to a Fed rate hike,
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I think the employment situation is getting better, slowly, so I don't think it will cause the consumer to shut down, ... But job growth like this makes consumer spending that much more fragile, if some exogenous shock should hit.
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The markets are trying to put this data in the context of how scared the Fed is by it. It's very difficult to see exactly what the Fed views as a continuation of last year's trend of broadly declining price pressure and what the Fed sees as a substantial decline.
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I think a lot of gloom still exists about the size of the deficit and the market is punishing the dollar for that.
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The market reacted exactly the way they wanted it to, which was to flatten the yield curve. I think the point is clear: Policy makers are going to do whatever they can to help the Fed. The rate cuts that the Fed is putting through are only hitting the short curve; they're only psychological.
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I think it's too soon to call for a bottom simply because history has shown us that with this currency, it's a tough bet.
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I think they'll need to see a lot of job growth, not just one month.
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It is a modest dollar negative; the trade data combined with the claims data, but the focus this morning is very much on digesting the BOJ and on payrolls tomorrow.
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Look at the subcomponents -- what are inventories and new orders in this case? ... If I were the purchasing manager at a hospital and somebody asked me about 'new orders,' what would I count? Syringes? Patients? At a bank, what's 'inventory?' Palm Pilots? Mortgages?
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