14 Quotes by Michael Every

This kind of figure is bound to generate negative headlines for New Zealand. Higher oil prices also suggest the deficit could widen further.

The odds of a rate increase on Oct. 27 have shortened. The Reserve Bank is extremely worried over whether the economy will slow rapidly enough ahead to cap obvious inflation pressures. It looks increasingly like it will not.

Economic growth is slowing, and exporters are already suffering. It is a certainty that fourth-quarter net exports will subtract substantially from GDP growth while the current account deficit will widen further.

Importantly, we believe that if oil prices drop back from present levels then CPI inflation may already have peaked year on year and should be on the way down over the rest of 2006 - potentially rapidly if oil reverses significantly.

The underlying message from the data is that at the coal face producers are seeing higher costs, but as one moves closer and closer to the consumer these are reduced in both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year terms.