24 Quotes by Roger Lowenstein

Prophesy as much as you like, but always hedge. – Oliver Wendell Holmes, 1861.

As the English essayist G. K. Chesterton wrote, life is “a trap for logicians” because it is almost reasonable but not quite; it is usually sensible but occasionally otherwise: “It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is; its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden; its wildness lies in wait.

For men who prided themselves on being disciples of reason, their drive to live on the edge seemd inexplicable, unless they believed that becoming the richest would certify them as also being the smartest.

If Wall Street is to learn just one lesson from the Long-Term debacle, it should be that. The next time a Merton proposes an elegant model to manage risks and foretell odds, the next time a computer with a perfect memory of the past is said to quantify risks in the future, investors should run – and quickly – the other way. On Wall Street, though, few lessons remain learned.

Once a typhoon breaks loose in markets, there is no telling where it will go.

As Keyes noted, one bet soundly considered is preferable to many poorly understood.