44 Quotes by Rolf Dobelli

Rational decision making requires you to forget about the costs incurred to date. No matter how much you have already invested, only your assessment of the future costs and benefits counts.

A mathematician is afraid of flying due to the small risk of a terrorist attack. So, on every flight he takes a bomb with him in his hand luggage. ‘The probability of having a bomb on the plane is very low,’ he reasons, ’and the probability of having two bombs on the same plane is virtually zero!

In conclusion: when it comes to pattern recognition, we are oversensitive. Regain your scepticism. If you think you have discovered a pattern, first consider it pure chance. If it seems too good to be true, find a mathematician and have the data tested statistically. And if the crispy parts of your pancake start to look a lot like Jesus’ face, ask yourself: if he really wants to reveal himself, why doesn’t he do it in Times Square or on CNN?

It’s okay to be envious – but only of the person you aspire to become.

In daily life, because triumph is made more visible than failure, you systematically overestimate your chances of succeeding.

The human brain seeks patterns and rules. In fact, it takes it one step further: If it finds no familiar patterns, it simply invents some.

There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know,” wrote Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith.

Verbal expression is the mirror of the mind. Clear thoughts become clear statements, whereas ambiguous ideas transform into vacant ramblings.

Only the best will do? In this age of unlimited variety, rather the opposite is true: ‘good enough’ is the new optimum.