30 Quotes by Rory Robertson

Financial conditions clearly are quite a bit tighter than they were six weeks ago. I'd be dumbfounded if the Fed was not anxious about this dramatic rebound in yields dampening the rebound in the pipeline.

This number doesn't tell us much at all -- the seasonal factors are all over the shop. It only means something if it's maintained over the next several weeks.

The sharp rise in mortgage rates that is now under way threatens to limit the refinancing boom, limiting the cash that will be dropped into U.S. consumers' hands during the critical holiday-shopping season.

The thing driving service prices is wage growth, and after two years of sub-par economic growth, we've got wages decelerating. If the Fed doesn't get the economy growing at an above-trend pace in the next couple of years, deflation will arise.

The thing that helped the economy so much was a drop in interest rates, which meant lower mortgage rates, which meant consumers have been able to tap the wealth in their homes by refinancing and taking equity out of their homes. With rates having backed up so sharply, refinancing is not such a bargain any more.

After a long period of inactivity, the tide looks to be turning on the local interest-rate front.

There's a perception that the economy is actually doing quite well, in particular the labor market. It's a fairly straightforward assumption the Fed would want to hike rates in March and perhaps in May. You might see bond yields go higher.

It's very clear that there's minimal inflation pressures in the U.S. beyond the oil-price pressures. A lot of fundamental players will see value in the 10- year Treasuries at 4.8 percent levels.

It's too early to say with great confidence that things are definitely getting worse, but if we get another month or two of payrolls declines, there won't be any shortage of people saying a double dip has started.