30 Quotes by Rory Robertson
- Author Rory Robertson
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It leaves open the door for the Reserve Bank to raise official interest rates sooner rather than later.
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At this stage, the worst-case scenario for the US economy post-Katrina simply is not playing out.
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The Fed is trying to do what it can, but the history of the past 200 years is that big booms tend to end badly -- big equity market booms in particular. The Fed so far has done a magnificent job of holding the show together, but we don't know what effects of the bubble are still in the pipeline.
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The Fed ultimately will be forced to cut rates further because we have had this ongoing issue of sub-par growth, disappointment on the jobs front and core inflation edging lower. People are talking about a terrific snap-back in the economy after the war, but I'm skeptical we're likely to see it.
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I'm not sure how markets might react. On one hand, you could see the shorts kicking in, pushing it higher, but on the other hand, you could see investors feeling a bit nervous because the Fed is saying things are worse than they thought.
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If gross domestic product prints 2.75 or 3 percent, it's broadly where the market is. People put very little weight on the fact that any pressure on inflation in the U.S. is quite modest and that's breeding low and steady bond yields.
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The inflation risk is less intense than many would imagine and, as energy prices edge lower, some investors are seeing value at current yields. It helps reduce the pressure the Fed has been worried about.
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All the good growth is in the forecasts, in the idea that financial conditions have eased. But we've seen that doesn't always turn into actual good growth.
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The markets were a little disappointed that the Fed didn't give any explicit hint that a pause is around the corner.
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