56 Quotes by Stephen Roach

To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, ... That development, in the context of a lingering jobless recovery, could raise serious questions about the staying power of America's current cyclical resurgence.

With global trade screeching to such a standstill, so, too, should the external demand contributions of most major economies around the world,

Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more perilous endgame is rising.

As the prospects of a full-blown oil shock rise, the prospects of outright global recession in 2005 loom more and more likely.

An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era.

Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..

The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to be an increasingly false sense of security.

The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not have confidence in him for.

The same distortions, in my view, could well be explaining a lot of the recent strength in the remainder of the U.S. data flow. If that's the case, all it will take is for the weather to return to normal and the seasonally adjusted data will fall like a stone.