35 Quotes by Wayne Ayers
- Author Wayne Ayers
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I think you would be hard-pressed to find an economist, aside from the supply-siders, who would argue against the idea that deficits matter.
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I think the general message here is that despite the fears about a low savings rate, the consumer continues to hang in there, and that's essentially the only thing that's going to keep the economy on track.
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I think (Fed Chairman) Alan Greenspan has made it all but official, we'll get another rate cut in June, but my guess is a quarter point rate cut, principally because of what we're seeing on the inflation report. The CPI and PPI have been trending up over the last two years.
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I think if you take those two things together, there is some hope.
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The anecdotal evidence of the beige book seems to confirm what all these economic reports have been saying.
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We'll probably have a moderate-paced recovery. I couldn't agree more with the Greenspan's forecasts that it would be a sub-par recovery.
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We are not going to see the strong increases in productivity that we've become accustomed to and I think we're at that point now and that's the message in these numbers.
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To me, the business cycle is working as it always does, absent an external shock. Inventory liquidation means firms have to increase production, and they're already doing that. They're also increasing the length of the work week and hiring temporary workers. All these things support income and spending.
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Firms in the past year have continued to invest in equipment and technology to improve productivity. And with good reason -- the cost of capital is below the cost of labor.
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