Against that, the market has started thinking about rate hikes in Europe in the first quarter of next year. That is going to prevent a large fall in the euro.

The Australian dollar has moved up against all other currencies quite sharply. The market has been wrong-footed by the Australian dollar, as has happened on several occasions this year. You get a few strong numbers in Australia and the market has to turn around again.

The hopes were not high for a clear winner based on polls last week, but the poor showing of the CDU suggests the German people were against further pro-business reforms.

The currency and rate futures markets are pricing in a rate hike by year-end and two by the middle of next year and this is why the euro has strengthened, especially against the yen.