We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.

We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.

After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02. This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.

After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02, ... This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.