The key is obviously inflation. A lot of inflation talk could reverse the thought that the Fed is ready to pause after the January meeting.

If we see any upward revision (in unit labor costs) that would give the Fed reason not to pause.

If the Fed doesn't at least hint that a pause could be on the way, I think that would surprise the market.

I suspect the main focus of the day will be the Fed minutes. It looks like we'll get a strong start on the strength in overseas markets, but we'll probably be trading sideways until the minutes are released.

The Fed is going to have to do some serious thinking. We see the markets responding to that today.