One of the things that makes adhering to probabilities so difficult (and profitable) for an investor is that emotion has a pronounced impact on how we assess probability. Predictably, positive emotion leads us to overstate the likelihood of positive occurrences and negative emotion does just the opposite. This coloring of probability leads us to misapprehend risk… All too often we confuse the intensity of our longing with the probability of our winning.
-Daniel Crosby
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