171 Quotes by Adam Cole
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What we're likely to get is no move but all the comments suggesting that there will be a move next month.
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There is a limit to the negative effect on the yen of the capital outflows that have been driving it down for the last two months.
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Sentiment is generally negative for the dollar even in the face of good news. The market is looking through the expected rate hikes. If you take away the interest rate support for the dollar... and the structural problem is still there, the trend for the dollar is downwards.
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If we do buy the Japan recovery story, then there is probably more buying to be done and that is still the principal flow that will support the yen.
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Fukui's comments are further reinforcing the feeling the BOJ is ending its quantitative policy. It's the vote of confidence in the economy by the BOJ.
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What is doing the damage is the fact that the U.K. is pulling in more imports, which shows the continued strength of the economy and the strength of sterling.
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Having said that, the leading indicators of GDP are pointing to a very significant slowdown. From here it would appear growth for the final quarter will slow and for the first few months of next year as well.
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I think the market has got too pessimistic on interest rates,
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Koizumi is viewed as a reformer. If he had lost the election, the danger would be that we could have seen Japan slip back into its old ways.
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