24 Quotes by Daniel Katzive
- Author Daniel Katzive
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Short term, it is good to buy the currency on dips.
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- Author Daniel Katzive
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Moreover, with a fair amount of Fed tightening now priced in, the US currency remains more vulnerable to downside surprises than upside surprises.
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Friday's solid US payrolls headlines and strength in average earnings growth have boosted Fed tightening expectations further.
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Further evidence of stability in the housing market and solid retail activity could prompt a rethink of MPC easing risk now priced in, allowing the euro to retreat sharply against the pound.
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We suspect that the end of the Fed tightening cycle as policy tightening continues in the key low-yield economies will leave the dollar increasingly exposed to structural vulnerabilities in the second quarter.
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It adds near-term upside risk for the dollar.
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I think the break of the big level last week ... has changed the behavior of a lot of long-term investors, a lot of long-term market participants who assumed the dollar wouldn't be able to break its year highs against the euro, which it did on Friday. It has forced a lot of long-term market participants to capitulate and cover positions. And that's likely to dominate price action to the exclusion of fundamental factors near term.
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I think this is a sign that the market remains disproportionately sensitive to downside surprises in U.S. data as opposed to the upside, given how much (Fed rate hikes) is already priced in.
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Michigan was a touch below consensus. The dollar may pull back a little, especially against interest-rate-sensitive currencies.
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