47 Quotes by Douglas Altabef
- Author Douglas Altabef
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The potential is that there could have been a surprise that could have influenced the Fed next Tuesday, and clearly that hasn't happened. But employment is a lagging indicator. So the report is not a reflection of where the economy is going, but where it's been.
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Three years ago people actually thought that the Dow could go to 36,000 and it did the opposite. It's when people have really given up on the prospect of a real rally that you see a real rally, but try telling that to most investors now. Three years ago there was no reality dose, today there's no perspective.
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The real issue is that energy prices keep rising -- it's like an invisible tax on the market and the consumer.
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We're seeing the reality of a market that does not have any great conviction. Anyone who expected a linear, 'We're off to the races' kind of tone after last week was mistaken.
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We're looking at the first day of the rest of the year and it's looking like more of the same. On an up note, there is more discussion that maybe we have worked through some of the intense negativity of late and that the disconnect between the economic data and market action may end soon.
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On any given day, the market is taking its cue from forecasts and results. Juniper was negative, so that's spilling through the Nasdaq. I think, overall, though, the trend through the rest of the year and into early next year will be more positive.
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On a macro level, we are at the beginnings of an economic recovery, not as fast as some people want, and we may have some altercation with Iraq in the next six months. That uncertainty is putting the foot on the accelerator and pulling it off the accelerator at the same time.
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My sense is that you'll see a few more days of gains as a lot of money managers want to be long the market through the quarter end.
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I expect we will be seeing those kind of normative gains next year.
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