146 Quotes by Ethan Harris

What we're looking for is evidence of the corporate side of the economy gaining confidence and making real commitments in its own spending. There, I'd say the news is at best mixed,

The basic story of the consumer is that he's OK in the near term and at risk in the medium term.

We knew we would have a very weak number because of a collapse in auto sales after two big months in a row and the incentives kind of stop working ... But if you look at the rest of the report, every single major component was up. It was very broad-based growth across many components.

The adjustment to higher prices has been fairly orderly. It's not a 70's style shock. Oil prices do have an effect on the economy but it's not dramatic. It's a problem but not at the top of the list.

Ultimately, for the economic recovery to sustain itself, we have to see the labor market improve. As the tax-cut benefits fade, consumers will look for more fundamental reasons to spend money, and there will have to be some job growth.

It's very likely consumer spending will slow down significantly in coming months.

What we're assuming is that as the Fed hikes rates, the bond market gets pulled along.

They'll wait to see how Christmas shapes up, and if it's weak, they'll give another rate cut in January.

We reached the point where we don't trust our model anymore. That's why we were below the consensus.