146 Quotes by Ethan Harris

The combination of still-strong growth and rising inflation has prompted a string of hawkish Fed speakers all arguing strenuously for the need to keep inflation contained,

What happened is that initially the market breathed a sigh of relief when the storm was downgraded to a Category 4 and missed New Orleans, ... they are starting to look at the damage more seriously. We are seeing further upward pressure on oil prices. People are starting to think about the many aspects of the destruction here.

What's happened between now and then is that we've accomplished everything we've set out to achieve, ... Then they were trying to get the economy to the state it is in now, so the attitude now is, 'lets not screw anything up.'

With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.

The markets have forgotten two lessons from prior natural disasters.

We think inflation is going to remain benign going forward.

The markets are going to be a bit uncertain as to how to react, given that the Fed is waiting in the wings. They are all going to be looking ahead toward the FOMC meeting to see what the Fed's verdict is on the data rather than reacting as it comes out. They'll be sort of holding their breath.

We see a number of reasons for the Fed to drop its 'measured pace' language.

The market has some adjustment to do, but it will be more of a slow leak than a pop.