146 Quotes by Ethan Harris

Even with this dip, the unemployment rate is still about a percentage point above the level where it might threaten inflation. That means there's plenty of wiggle room for the Fed on policy. They're going to be patient and not change the wording of their statement next week.

Even with a resolution to the situation in Iraq, the economy will still be suffering from some fairly significant headwinds.

Even with a positive outcome in the war, the economy is going to have lost a lot of momentum by the time it's over. We're not going to see a few weeks of weak data -- we'll see a few months of weak data.

Eventually that will slow down the U.S. consumer. We've got the seeds of a slowdown coming out of the housing market, but it hasn't really had that much impact yet on the economy.

That's the big lingering risk factor sitting out there on the horizon. Will we have a gradual adjustment, where the trade deficit gradually improves, or will we have an accident along the way?

That's about the right feel for the economy,

It's much too early for the Fed to be thinking about hiking interest rates. It would be a very dangerous action on their part in this fragile initial stage of the recovery.

It's not as friendly as some of the other inflation numbers, but it's just one indicator. We have no inflation warning signals from any of the other major inflation indicators.

It's not a question of a sudden explosion in prices. It's more an erosion of the low-inflation psychology.