146 Quotes by Ethan Harris

The Fed has made it clear that it will take quite ugly news to get them to move in advance of any clarity around the Iraq situation. That means the March 18 meeting seems too early to expect a cut.

There is a history both in appointments under the Bush administration and the Fed chairmanship itself of people off the list being picked. Bush does seem to have a proclivity to pick people with a more business background for his economic positions.

The Fed's kind of locked into this cautious optimism mode. Everybody there has the same line about how once geopolitical risks abate things will get better.

We've been trying to see whether the improvement of the economy and financial market will carry the day in terms of consumer confidence, or if worries about labor will dominate. It looks like the 'glass-half-full' view is winning.

The Fed's announced an endgame for monetary policy.

We've gone from a period where there was a reasonable chance the Fed might cut rates just four months ago to one in which the Fed is very much comfortably just sitting on hold for now.

The consumer is already somewhat vulnerable in the year ahead as the tax-cut effects fade. If we continue to see pressure from energy prices, consumer spending is almost sure to slow down some.

I think that (high inflation readings) would be almost the last straw to convince the Fed.

I'm not sure I believe the Labor Department. On Friday, there must have been a below-normal number of people applying for benefits.