146 Quotes by Ethan Harris

In total, we learned very little about the future of the economy or Fed policy except that the Fed is not ready to hike rates in the very near future.

Rising rates could have a tremendous impact on slowing consumer spending. Consumer spending has been about 6 percent, when adjusted for inflation. Rising rates could bring it down to 2 or 3 percent.

In the preliminary reading an increase in the index of current conditions was offset by a decrease in the expectations index. We expect a similar breakdown in the final survey.

Payrolls were well below the whisper number, so there's been a big sigh of relief in the market,

That basically, in my mind, cancels out the benefits of the lower tax rates,

In the big oil shocks that really damaged the economy, the tax on the consumer was many times more than that, but that alone wasn't enough. You also had to have people worrying that prices were going higher forever.

My rule of thumb is to look at both the household and payroll surveys together, giving three-quarters weight to the payroll survey and one quarter to the household survey.

In terms of being a predictor for the national index, the Chicago number has a spotty record.

We now believe that the first Fed rate hike will not come until December, and we continue to worry the Fed may be forced to ease again before it begins hiking rates,