35 Quotes by Jan Hatzius
- Author Jan Hatzius
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What they're going to be aiming for is to leave open the question of whether they hike on March 28.
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While the official productivity data look impressive, alternative measures that are equally reasonable show a much more subdued picture.
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Biggest pent-up negative wealth effect you can see in the economic data going back to 1952.
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What matters for our well-being is the net output -- remember, depreciation charges are not available for consumption -- per person in the overall economy, not the gross output per hour worked in the non-farm business sector alone,
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- Author Jan Hatzius
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What will be nice, though it's unimaginable right now, is to start forecasting when they might be able to cut rates.
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Going forward, is there still adjustment in the pipeline? I think there is. The household savings rate is low, and debt growth has accelerated. That means that consumer spending growth is going to be slow. In the next 12 months, the economy is going to do well, but it will be a temporary acceleration rather than the beginning of a normal recovery.
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There is a more plausible explanation for the spending slowdown, namely the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus from a household sector whose finances remain stretched,
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We continue to believe that the underlying drivers of productivity growth are turning less favorable,
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The ratio of inventories to shipments rose a bit in the latest month. We have found movements in this ratio to be a good indicator of industrial activity. Just a straw in the wind at this point, but a possible indication of future moderation in the sector.
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