40 Quotes by John Ryding
- Author John Ryding
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The plunge in durable goods orders in January is entirely due to volatility in transportation. The underlying details of this report are much stronger than the headline.
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There is no doubt in my mind that inflation is low and heading lower. I think the patient hand should be willing to accumulate bond positions here.
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If we hadn't had Asia, there's no doubt that the Fed's economic model, with 350,000 job growth per month in each of the last four months, would have forced interest rates up.
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From the Fed's perspective, slack in the production sector continues to diminish, which should maintain Fed concerns about upside risk to inflation.
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There are obviously going to be losers and there are going to be winners from the stronger dollar. The U.S. consumer is the clear winner.
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I think we've moved beyond the 'flight to quality' stage. People are really looking at the inflation fundamentals.
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I think it's much more likely that Greenspan gives us a quarter-point cut, and then comes back at the November or December meeting with another quarter-point cut.
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I think it's something we're going to have to learn to live with until the fundamentals can reassert themselves. But I do believe that the favorable fundamentals of strong U.S. economic growth and low inflation are here to stay for awhile.
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I think they'll hold unless we see some surprisingly weak economic data on the jobs front, which comes out on Friday. But absent that, I think the Fed is going to be tempted, having cut rates three times, to let things sit a while.
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