14 Quotes by Joseph McAlinden
- Author Joseph McAlinden
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I think the Dow will hold up fairly well. The stocks are much cheaper (than Nasdaq issues), and the supply-demand conditions in the businesses are much more positive.
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I think divergence is the name of the game for the first half of the year.
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People are questioning the underlying fundamentals of (technology stocks).
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We have this backdrop of the Fed raising rates and a growing fear that there's more to come based on economic statistics. What will determine how we do is what those statistics look like over the next few months.
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The question is what catalyst will get it going. My guess is more signs of a stronger economy. That might be higher interest rates, but you may need that to get small caps going. They may improve as the bond (goes down).
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While I love technology longer term, I think technology is going to be very problematic in the rest of the year because nobody knows the ramifications of Y2K.
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When the Fed is easing monetary policy, you don't want to get bearish -- you don't want to stand in front of a moving train.
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At the moment there is not a broad-based systemic inflation problem bubbling up in the economy. The Fed as a precaution has raised rates a little bit, will raise rates a little bit more but I don't think they are going to do a whole lot more after that.
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The strength in these stocks can only happen when you have healthy markets.
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