23 Quotes by Maury Harris

We are seeing a 'soft landing' rather than a 'hard landing' in consumer spending for a couple of reasons. First, although job growth is slowing, wages are still rising, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% in October. Second, despite recent stock market turmoil, consumer spirits are holding up reasonably well.

We believe that the Fed will require both consistent solid hiring and a rise in inflation before it begins to lift rates.

What we do know is that the system manages to work -- we've been dealing with import penetration in this country for over three decades. Over that period of time, the unemployment rate has had its ups and downs, but there's been no trend increase in unemployment.

I think we're probably more adaptable now than we were in the past. Education is the key to that -- it makes you flexible.

Price pressures appear to be building at crude PPI levels, but the Fed will likely wait to respond until these pressures filter into the consumer price index. We do not expect that to occur until next year.

We now estimate that total real consumption rose at a 6.5-percent annual rate in the third quarter as a whole, above the 5.5 percent we assumed when we raised our estimate for total real GDP growth to 5.5 percent from 4.5 percent.

Today's FOMC statement did not add any new specificity or much elaboration, and the initial reaction in the bond market has been limited.

With consumption accounting for about 70 percent of GDP, the extra strength should add about 0.7 point to total GDP growth.

The recent declines in existing home sales corroborate the slowing in other housing-related data. We expect additional slowing in the housing market, including prices, in 2006. In turn, the cooling will probably result in a moderation in overall growth.