23 Quotes by Maury Harris

Through the volatility, the trend in claims is gradually downward again, consistent with the labor market slowly starting to regain momentum after a setback in late 2002.

Both current conditions and expectations remain above their wartime lows, but the reversal of previous gains undercuts the notion that the slowdown early this year owed only to geopolitical concerns. Consumers are clearly troubled by the absence of new hiring, and worry about income prospects.

Difficulties of seasonally adjusting the retail sector around year-end suggest that the two-month average -- about flat -- is a more reliable gauge of hiring trends.

Fed officials ... likely anticipated some fallout in fixed income markets. We believe ... that Fed officials wanted to signal a greater probability of tightening in 2004 than had been priced into markets.

It remains unclear, of course, what role economic data really are playing in markets just now. Despite evidence that the recovery continues both in the U.S. and abroad, equity markets continue to struggle.

The bond market has been moving on two things today: the movement of stocks and this speculation about the yuan.

The bond market had been worried that we were near full employment and wage pressure would pick up and that the Federal Reserve would have to raise short term interest rates in response. But now that the all important employment cost index was up just 0.6 percent, the Fed doesn't need to raise short term rates because the economy is slowing down.

The contained job gains will make it easier for the Fed to convince investors that it will not rush to tighten. We still expect tightening to start only next August.

The consumer numbers look fairly strong, although at least some of that strength is likely to fade in coming months if housing continues to weaken. The mortgage applications data suggest home prices are already weakening.