16 Quotes by Qu Hongbin
- Author Qu Hongbin
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There are various hidden uncertainties if we look at the main growth engines. Exports depend on external factors and it will be a big question as to whether China's exports can be a single flower blossoming if the world economy slows next year.
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Simply because as a matter of fact China still has plenty of rural surplus laborers and people are talking about a magnitude of more than 200 million - so you know from national-wide point of view, there is plenty of labor supply there.
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- Author Qu Hongbin
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China's economy has so far performed better than people had expected. Export growth is also stronger than expected.
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Given the evidence of deteriorating investment efficiency, China needs to rebalance its growth by shifting away from investment toward consumption.
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We need to read this with caution, this is largely a reflection of the Chinese New Year distortion, therefore we should not see it as a pick up in inflation.
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The government has to spend more on education, healthcare and pensions to take the burden off individuals and give them more confidence to spend.
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The government should create more jobs in the manufacturing and service sectors as part of it ongoing campaign to reduce the country's rural population.
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We expect growth in fixed investment to slow from 27 percent last year to 15 percent in 2004 and around 10 percent in 2005,
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This slowdown, together with new capacity, is likely to have a material impact on global demand for commodities over the next two years,
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