7 Quotes by Robert Jervis

Perceptions of the world and of other actors diverge from reality in patterns that we can detect and for reasons that we can understand.

Ever since Roberta Wohlstetter’s pathbreaking study of why the United States was taken by surprise at Pearl Harbor 50 years ago, both academics and members of the Intelligence Community (IC) have made significant progress in understanding intelligence failures. About how to correct these errors and do better we know much less, however, and it is to this subject that this volume makes a major contribution. --Foreword to Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action

If anyone knows where he is and thinks someone else will turn him in, they might think, 'Hey, it might as well be me that collects the reward money.' So turning in bin Laden can become a corrosive, self-fulfilling prophecy.

You build up a store of information which allows you to piece the information together. Part of what you do is compare what you learn with what you're getting from other sources.

The Shiites in the south and the Kurds in the north would need to join together, but the Kurds are more interested in independence. Iran, Syria and Turkey are unlikely to support an independent Kurd state because of their significant Kurdish populations, and others in Iraq will not support overthrowing Saddam if they think it will result in a breakup of the country.

Once countries know that the U.S. is going to use military force in Iraq, they may accept it, although not with the same support that the U.S. has had in Afghanistan. A lot of countries will decide to at least passively acquiesce. The military success in Afghanistan is helping to carry this support, but if the situation there deteriorates, how the world perceives a possible Iraqi option will change.

I don't see how he can elude capture forever. .... The lighter he travels, the less likely he is to be detected. Yet he also needs protection, and the more defended he is, the more he is a hard target to destroy and is easier to find.