I'm a pro-horserace guy.

We should neither worship at the altar of technology nor be frightened by it.

Human beings have an extraordinary capacity to ignore risks that threaten their livelihood, as though this will make them go away.

Wherever there is human judgment there is the potential for bias.

The best model of a cat is a cat.”91 Everything else is leaving out some sort of detail.

A forecaster who says he doesn’t care about the science is like the cook who says he doesn’t care about food.

Successful gamblers – and successful forecasters of any kind – do not think of the future in terms of no-lose bets, unimpeachable theories, and infinitely precise measurements. These are the illusions of the sucker, the sirens of his overconfidence.

Where our enemies will strike us is predictable: it’s where we least expect them to.

The human brain is quite remarkable; it can store perhaps three terabytes of information.

The blind spots in our thinking are usually of our own making and they can grow worse as we age.