PE

Philip E. Tetlock

11quotes

Full Name and Common Aliases


Philip E. Tetlock

Birth and Death Dates


Born: 1949
Died: Not applicable (still alive)

Nationality and Profession(s)


American
Social psychologist, expert in forecasting, decision-making, and cognitive biases

Early Life and Background


Philip E. Tetlock was born in 1949 to a family that valued education and intellectual pursuits. Growing up, he developed an interest in philosophy and psychology, which would later shape his academic career. Tetlock earned his Bachelor's degree from the University of California, Berkeley, before moving on to earn his Ph.D. in Psychology from Carnegie Mellon University.

Major Accomplishments


Tetlock's work has focused on improving our understanding of how people make decisions under uncertainty and how we can develop more effective forecasting methods. His research has led to several key findings:

The Accurate Political Predictions project, which demonstrated that a diverse group of experts could outperform individual experts in predicting election outcomes.
 The development of the Good Judgment Project, which aimed to create a large-scale platform for crowdsourced forecasting and decision-making.

Notable Works or Actions


Tetlock's work has been widely recognized through various awards, including:

The 2006 Ibn Khaldun Award for excellence in forecasting
 A fellowship at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences

Impact and Legacy


Philip E. Tetlock's contributions to social psychology have had a significant impact on our understanding of decision-making and forecasting. His work has:

Influenced policy decisions, such as the development of more effective early warning systems for conflicts
 Shaped the field of forecasting, with his research informing the development of new methods and techniques

Why They Are Widely Quoted or Remembered


Tetlock's expertise in decision-making and forecasting has made him a sought-after speaker on topics related to policy, business, and personal growth. His work continues to inspire individuals and organizations seeking to improve their ability to navigate complex situations.

As a renowned expert in his field, Tetlock's insights offer valuable lessons for anyone looking to make more informed decisions or improve their ability to predict outcomes.

Quotes by Philip E. Tetlock

But when big events happen – markets crash, wars loom, leaders tremble – we turn to the experts, those in the know. We look to people like Tom Friedman.
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But when big events happen – markets crash, wars loom, leaders tremble – we turn to the experts, those in the know. We look to people like Tom Friedman.
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We are all forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product, or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold.
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We are all forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product, or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold.
PE
Take the price of oil, long a graveyard topic for forecasting reputations.
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Take the price of oil, long a graveyard topic for forecasting reputations.
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It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously,” Daniel Kahneman noted, “but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.
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It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously,” Daniel Kahneman noted, “but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.
PE
Consumers of forecasting will stop being gulled by pundits with good stories and start asking pundits how their past predictions fared – and reject answers that consist of nothing but anecdotes and credentials.
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Consumers of forecasting will stop being gulled by pundits with good stories and start asking pundits how their past predictions fared – and reject answers that consist of nothing but anecdotes and credentials.
PE
The ultimate goal of science is uncertainty’s total eradication.
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The ultimate goal of science is uncertainty’s total eradication.
PE
There are no certainties in life – not even death and taxes if we assign a nonzero probability to the invention of technologies that let us upload the contents of our brains into a cloud-computing network and the emergence of a future society so public-spirited and prosperous that the state can be funded with charitable donations.
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There are no certainties in life – not even death and taxes if we assign a nonzero probability to the invention of technologies that let us upload the contents of our brains into a cloud-computing network and the emergence of a future society so public-spirited and prosperous that the state can be funded with charitable donations.
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Ignoring the vices of our friends and the virtues of our enemies sets us up for nasty surprises.
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Ignoring the vices of our friends and the virtues of our enemies sets us up for nasty surprises.
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Here’s my long-term prediction for Long Now. When the Long Now audience of 2515 looks back on the audience of 2015, their level of contempt for how we go about judging political debate will be roughly comparable to the level of contempt we have for the 1692 Salem witch trials.
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Here’s my long-term prediction for Long Now. When the Long Now audience of 2515 looks back on the audience of 2015, their level of contempt for how we go about judging political debate will be roughly comparable to the level of contempt we have for the 1692 Salem witch trials.
PE
Need for cognition" is the psychological term for the tendency to engage in and enjoy hard mental slogs. [...] superforecasters score high in need-for-cognition tests.
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Need for cognition" is the psychological term for the tendency to engage in and enjoy hard mental slogs. [...] superforecasters score high in need-for-cognition tests.
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#cognition
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