Presidents always get in trouble in second terms. He's in more trouble than most.

When bad luck comes along, you've got to have a lot of momentum and a lot of forward motion. But Bush didn't do a lot of things that would have gotten him through those moments. When the hurricanes hit, when Katrina hit in particular, he already had lost momentum. And he slammed into a wall.

The fact that he's had a lot of experience in the Senate wasn't really that exciting or enough to make people want to switch over to him.

There are moments when people have to realize their credibility, which is the only thing politicians have, is hurt.