All the factors point to an upturn from here,

The dollar started a bit stronger today, then weakened a bit after the broadcasting of the bin Laden audio tape.

All year the euro has been damaged by comments emanating from German politicians,

The euro has lost ground against every other currency, apart from the Brazilian real and a few eastern European ones,

If everything remains the same, the euro should be closer to $1.08 than $1.02,

It highlights that a great deal of investment is flowing out of the euro area and into the U.S., the U.K. and elsewhere,

On a short-term trading view the euro looks pretty awful,

The U.S. economy is showing no signs of losing steam,

The U.S. economy is still doing fine, and the economic numbers are showing that. That means there's likely to be another two more rate increases, rather than just one, and that's going to support the dollar.

It's an incremental step to develop its foreign-exchange market and make its currency more transparent. The central bank has been heavily involved in the market and will probably still intervene.