The leading indicators are telling us that we have got a slowdown because of the disruption from the hurricanes, but it is not as dire as the September drop would suggest.

The economy is living with it, and corporations are turning in strong profits despite high energy costs. People forget that energy isn't as big a part of the economy as it was 25 years ago.

The geopolitical tensions are affecting people. They're not happy with Washington and when they're not happy about Washington, it ends up making them not happy about the economy.

I don't see how we can avoid taking a hit and it will be coming right as we move into the Christmas buying season.

I don't think there's any cliff you suddenly walk off. I'm not going to worry about a recession until we get up to $100 a barrel.

If you're trying to finance capital spending, you do that off saving.

If you take out gas and cars, sales were basically flat. Consumers are getting more cautious.

If you're going to buy bonds, that's the place to be.

In Japan's case, back in 2003-2004, they feared the yen would drop too much in value and they intervened heavily in the currency markets. Then, Japan ceased intervening over the last year or so -- but this didn't have much of a negative impact on U.S. markets.

The Fed doesn't like to switch policy very quickly. Unless something goes wrong, I think they are going to stop (after the March move) and hold rates there for an extended period.