The job market is firm, the outlook for hiring remains firm and hourly wages will pick up. Wages will grow enough to keep consumer spending up.

Housing has peaked and from here it's only downhill.

Housing has peaked, and from here it's only downhill. It's going to take some of the wind out of the sails of consumer spending, but it won't choke off consumption.

Do not read too much into the weak January reading as the entire decline was due to the weather.

Some see the widespread weakness outside transportation as discouraging. But orders are still running far above average given the last few months of increases.

There's plenty of cash around to finance capital spending and hiring. It matches well with our view that capital goods orders and business spending will remain strong.

If we see more pass through, more inflation, it could change the trajectory of the economy.